Hotel rates to rise almost everywhere in the world next year
Hotel rates will experience increases of 4% in Barcelona and 3% in Madrid, according to findings from the ‘Hotel Monitor 2019’, conducted by American Express Global Business Travel. The study analyzes the impact of geopolitical factors on global, regional and local hotel rates in 150 key corporate travel destinations over the next year.
Globally, the growing concern for traveler safety and the political and social instability in certain destinations will significantly impact the fluctuations in hotel rates.
There is also a considerable growth in the demand for hotels that strictly comply with the security in the data processing of their customers and with thecompanies' compliance policies, especially in premium hotel establishments.
The study also points to other political factors, such as the imminent Brexit or changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement;North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which will also impact commercial activity and the business travel industry.
According to forecasts, Asia-Pacific willá be the region experiencing the highest growth globally, with approximately 5.6% GDP growth in 2018 and 2019. This will be reflected in higher hotel rates, as will be the case in Latin America, where moderate rate increases will occur as their economies continue to gain strength.
In Europe, limited new property growth combined with steady demand is driving rate increases in many European destinations. By contrast, in the Middle East the wide choice of hotel suppliers, coupled with other factors, is driving down rates in some Gulf countries.
EUROPE
The reactivation of companies and their commercial activity in Europe, together with the drop in the unemployment rate, will contribute to an increase in travel, both from a corporate and leisure point of view and, therefore, to a strengthening of demand for hotels.
This demand continues to outstrip the opening of new establishments in most markets, so a moderate rate increase is expected in most countries in the region. However, there are exceptions, such as London, Fráncfort, Berlín and Múnich, where there is a clear commitment to the opening of new hotels, which will cause rates to remain stable over the next year.
The study points to Istanbul as the European city that will see the highest growth in hotel rates (17%), followed by Ankara, with 11%; Dublín, with 7%; París, with 6%; and Lisbon, also with 6%.
US AND CANADA&AACute;
The United States will continue to reaffirm its economic growth, with GDP expected to increase by 2.9% in 2018 and 2.8% in 2019. However, there will continue to be concerns due to the implementation of several policies by the Trump administration, which is bringing with it a reduction in the number of international travelers arriving in the country.
Changes in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) also have an impact on this point. International arrivals to the United States were down 4% in the first 3 quarters of 2017. Room supply was down 2.2% in April 2018 when compared to the figure for the same month last year.
The cities experiencing the highest hotel rate growth in North America will be Toronto, with 7%; Chicago, with 5%; Orlando, with 5%; Boston, with 5%; and Seattle, with 5%.
LATIN AMERICA
Overall, Latin America's economies continue to improve, as GDP growth of 2.5% is forecast for 2019 versus the 1.4% predicted for 2018. However, the economic outlook will also be marked by uncertainty surrounding trade activities and tax measures imposed by the United States, which will negatively impact the number of travelers traveling to Latin America.
According to the forecast, Perú Perú will be the country in the region with the strongest economic recovery in the region;
This will be the country in the region with the strongest economic recovery, although concerns about political instability remain.
The ‘Hotel Monitor 2019’ will ala that the cities with the largest increases in hotel rates will be Buenos Aires, with 21%; Sao Paulo, with 6%; and Monterrey, with 5%.
ASIA-PACÍFICO
The Asia-Pacific economy is expected to grow by 5.0%, while the Asia-PaciÍFICO
Asia-PaciÍFICO
It is expected that the Asia-PaciÍFICO is expected to achieve 5.6% growth in 2018 and 2019 and demand will continue to grow in the area, with countries such as China and India standing out in particular. In popular destinations, such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Sidney, Tokyo and Bangkok, room availability can become a challenge.
However, new hotel construction is keeping pace with rising demand. Overall, rates are expected to continue to grow moderately, although this may vary considerably depending on the city in question.
The cities that will see the largest increases in hotel rates will be Auckland, with 8%; Shenzhen, in China, with 5%; and Manila, with 5%.
PR&OACute;XIMO EAST AND &AACute;FRICA
The geopoliticalconvulsion will remain in much of the PrÓXIMO EAST, in China, with 5%; and in China, with 5%; The geopolitical turmoil will continue in much of the Middle East and Africa, although economic growth in some countries is cause for optimism. The combination of these factors will result in demand being heavily concentrated in premium category hotels, which are perceived as establishments that provide higher levels of security to travelers. As such, rates for these types of hotels are growing compared to mid-range establishments, with the latter concentrating domestic and regional travelers.
Hotel supply in the United Arab Emirates has increased by 24.9% since 2014, while hotel rates have been decreasing during this period. In the Middle East, the cities that will see the largest decreases in hotel rates will be Doha (Qatar) with -13%; Muscat (Omán) with -11%; and Abu Dhabi (UAE) with -6%.
In contrast, in &Africa significant increases in fares are expected in cities such as Lagos (Nigeria), with 13%; Accra (Ghana) with 8%; and Cape Town (Southáfrica) with 7%.