Transportation and accommodation prices to rise slightly in 2017 globally
The “Global Business Travel Forecast 2017” study by American Express Global Business Travel” forecasts that air, hotel and ground transportation rates will experience a slight increase over the next year globally. In the Spanish market, rates are expected to remain stable.
The trend will be driven by many of the factors that dominated the industry landscape during 2016, such as the slow growth of the Chinese economy, as well as depressed oil prices.
In addition, new factors have emerged during 2016, such as the Brexit, the growth of populist policies and growing concerns about security due to international terrorism, especially in Europe. All of this has created an environment of uncertainty in the marketplace that makes the impact of these factors on the travel industry still unknown.
A aérea demand, globally, will remain at the 2016 level récord, although low oil prices and strong competition among airlines will contribute to fares remaining in check, with forecasts differing depending on the region. Hotel activity for 2017 will improve moderately, at a slower pace than it has in 2016.
On a global level, average rates for the rent-a-car companies will also remain stable. Capacity continues to outstrip demand, despite companies' efforts to improve their fleet management.
However, according to Luis Dupuy de Lôme, general manager of American Express Global Business Travel España, “these forecasts may experience nuances throughout 2017, especially given the news of the úThese forecasts may experience nuances throughout 2017, especially considering the news of the last few days, which predict that, due to the cuts in oil production that will take place during 2017, crude oil will revalue and its prices will point to significant increases.
EUROPE
In Europe, airlines will continue to operate with the “headwind” due to the economic weakness, growing concerns about the security, the pressure of Gulf airlines on long-haul and the growing presence of low-cost airlines on short-haul air traffic. In Spain, although the economy has shown signs of recovery in 2016, this upward trend is expected to slow down in terms of airfares and prices are expected to remain stable.
On the other hand, when it comes to rates hotel rates, Europe will see demand also remain stable compared to 2016. Security concerns due to international terrorism and political uncertainty will helpá a maintenance of rates. The cities where rates will grow the most during 2017 are Dublín, St. Petersburg, Prague, Moscú Dusseldorf.
As for rent-a-car, the entry of new players and the increased capacity of suppliers will lead to rate controls. Although the impact of collaborative economy players (such as Uber) is still very limited, it is true that it is beginning to be observed that they are gradually being integrated into the companies' travel program.
NORTH AMERICA
The strong competition between traditional airlines and low-cost airlines is causing declines in fares, particularly on the busiest routes. However, this is offset by higher ancillary fees on the part of the airlines, stemming from their need to make a profit.
Although the strength of the dollar against other currencies, such as the pound, euro or peso, has made international travel more attractive to U.S. residents, security concerns and political uncertainty have had a negative effect on demand. Unless airlines maintain capacity reductions in 2017, economy class long-haul rates will drop by as much as 5%.
As for hotel, the growth rate in rates will be influenced by several factors, such as oil prices and the general strengthening of the economy. However, with new providers coming onto the scene offering their services online, only moderate growth in rates is expected, as room inventory will remain in line with demand. The cities where rates will grow the most during 2017 are: San Francisco, Portland, Denver, Seattle and Nashville.
ASIA-PAC&IACute;FICO
The Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific region will see
how therates in the Asia-Pacific aéreas remain stable compared to 2016, with slight increases depending on route and fare type. The travel industry will be in 2017 clearly conditioned by leisure demand from China.
According to IATA, demand in the region has been growing by around 9%, with China and India seeing increases of double-digit. The other side of the coin is shown by Japón and Australia, where demand will remain stable compared to 2016. The slowdown in the financial sector, with the consequent decline in premium-class air traffic and the political uncertainty arising from Brexit, will mean that pressure on rates will fall over the coming year.
In terms of hotels, the Asia-Pacific region has mixed forecasts depending on the particular country. China's booming middle class and India's strengthening economy point to strong increases in demand, but this will be offset by similar increases in openings, which will moderate rate increases.
In areas where no openings are planned, such as Sydney or Tokyo, prices will grow in line with increased demand. The cities where rates will grow the most during 2017 are Auckland (New Zealand), Canberra (Australia), Ho Chi Minh (Vietnam), Sydney (Australia) and Melbourne (Australia).