Business travel spending to reach new high despite global uncertainty
Corporate travel is booming, despite global economic and political uncertainties, according to GBTA's 2025 Outlook Report. This year, spending is anticipated to reach an "all-time high" of $1.57 trillion, up 6.6% year-over-year, as worldwide spending is expected to slow. Even amid tensions and precariousness, a rebound is expected, with projected growth of 8.1% by 2026.
That said, spending has moderated due to uncertainty in trade policies, which has led to downward forecasts, according to GBTA. A year ago, the organization was projecting a 10.4% increase in spending in 2025, but this has now been adjusted to 6.6%.
The moderate predictions for 2025 come on the heels of the optimism seen in 2024, which indicated that business travel spending was on the rise, predicting not only a new récord in 2024 spending, which was anticipated to reach $1.48 trillion by the end of 2024, up from a peak of $1.43 trillion in 2019, but also a steady increase. In reality, spending was slightly below the forecast, reaching $1.47 trillion in 2024, according to GBTA in its annual report.
"While this still marks a new high, real inflation-adjusted spending remains 14% below pre-pandemic levels, underscoring a slower recovery in travel volume, the GBTA study notes.
While the association notes that long-term forecasts are "clouded by geopolitical and economic volatility," it predicts that for the next five years, travel volumes will be down by about 1.5 percent, according to the GBTA study;predicts that by 2029, global spending will exceed $2 trillion due to structural changes in trade, corporate travel behavior and investment. Last year, it advanced that spending would surpass that threshold by 2028.
"As we reflexively anticipate reaching a new high in business travel spending this year, the outlook is stable, but the road ahead is more complex,
notesSuzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA. Uncertainty in trade policies, inflationary pressures and changes in global supply chains are reshaping how and where companies travel. This latest forecast reflects the resilience of business travel and our industry, as well as recognition of the risks ahead.
Spending is expected to grow by 6.4% in 2027 and 6.3% in 2028, with both figures "modestly higher" than predicted last year. These figures depend on the escalation or resolution of global trade tensions, according to GBTA.
GBTA's BTI, completed in collaboration with Visa and made public at the GBTA conference in Denver this week, is a five-year forecast that analyzes business travel spending in 72 countries and 44 industries. It includes insights from more than 7,300 business travelers.
SPENDING BY REGION
While Asia Pacific (APAC) was the region with the highest travel spend in 2024 and 2023, the United States is expected to regain that spot this year, according to the report.
The top 15 markets in the 2025 forecast account for $1.31 trillion in spending. United Statesand Chinaare the top two projected markets, reaching $395.4 billion and $373.1 billion, respectively, 58% of total spending.
Germany, Japanand the United Kingdomare expected to follow the United States and China. Within the top 15 markets, India, South Koreaand Turkeyare among the fastest growing, while The Netherlandsand Spainare among the slowest. They could even see a slight decrease in spending.